Gains for right-wing populists, losses for pro-european parties: five weeks before the european elections on 23. To 26. May polls suggest difficult majority in the next EU parliament.
With 24 percent, the european people’s party (EPP), to which the CDU and CSU also belong, remains the strongest party in europe. The social democrats followed with 19.8 percent, the liberals with 10.1 percent and the greens with 7.6 percent. EPP leadership candidate manfred weber (CSU) needed at least two allies to be elected as successor to EU commission chief jean-claude juncker, whose term ends at the end of october.
The european parliament published the projection on thursday – the last day of the session of the current 751 deputies – based on current opinion polls from all 28 eu states. The election also assumed that great britain would participate in the election, as the deadline for the UK’s exit from the EU was last set at 31 december. October had been extended. Theoretically, however, it is conceivable that great britain will still manage the brexit before then – and then the for the 23rd vote. May election called off.
The biggest winner in the polls is the right-wing populist group ENF, which currently includes the austrian fpo, the italian lega and the french party rassemblement national (formerly front national). According to the pollsters, the alliance was able to achieve 8.3 percent, a plus of 3.3 percent. The other two groups, ECR and EFDD, which are partly critical of the EU, are at 8.8 and 6 percent in the polls. The factions are expected to reorganize. It is unlikely that all EU critics will join forces. Mathematically, they came to a good 23 percent in total. The left is at 6.1 percent.
The figures confirm forecasts of significant losses for the largest groups, which still formed a kind of rough coalition in 2014. The EPP could lose about 5 percentage points compared to the previous election, as well as the social democrats would be affected.
At least partly responsible for the poor ratings for CDU, CSU and SPD. According to the polls, the CDU and CSU can expect to win four fewer seats than in 2014. According to the polls, they will only have 30 mandates. SPD could even plummet from 27 to 17 seats in the polls. The greens were expected to win 18 seats (plus 7), the afd can expect 11 seats (plus 4), the FDP 7 (plus 4).
Great britain’s participation was bound to upset both the social democrats and the right-wing populists across europe. According to the polls, the labor party can hope for 26.5 percent, the conservatives of prime minister theresa may can only expect 16.5 percent. The new brexit party and the anti-EU ukip each come in at 13.5 percent, according to these figures. A british poll recently put the brexit party alone as high as 27 percent. Her boss is european parliamentarian nigel farage, who used to lead the ukip.
On wednesday evening, the EPP’s top candidate, weber, had his first TV duel with his social democratic opponent, frans timmermans, on french television. However, only a few fundamental differences became clear in the process. Weber emphasized the protection of the eastern borders in migration policy and wants to make this issue a matter for the boss. Timmermans calls for fair distribution of wealth and higher taxes for large corporations. The opposing parties present themselves on 7. And 16. May also on german television.